Background: Severity scores are commonly used for outcome adjustment and benchmarking of trauma care provided. No specific models performed only with critically ill patients are available. Our objective was to develop a new score for early mortality prediction in trauma ICU patients.
Methods: This is a retrospective study using the Spanish Trauma ICU registry (RETRAUCI) 2015-2019. Patients were divided and analysed into the derivation (2015-2017) and validation sets (2018-2019). We used as candidate variables to be associated with mortality those available in RETRAUCI that could be collected in the first 24 h after ICU admission. Using logistic regression methodology, a simple score (RETRASCORE) was created with points assigned to each selected variable. The performance of the model was carried out according to global measures, discrimination and calibration.
Results: The analysis included 9465 patients: derivation set 5976 and validation set 3489. Thirty-day mortality was 12.2%. The predicted probability of 30-day mortality was determined by the following equation: 1/(1 + exp (- y)), where y = 0.598 (Age 50-65) + 1.239 (Age 66-75) + 2.198 (Age > 75) + 0.349 (PRECOAG) + 0.336 (Pre-hospital intubation) + 0.662 (High-risk mechanism) + 0.950 (unilateral mydriasis) + 3.217 (bilateral mydriasis) + 0.841 (Glasgow ≤ 8) + 0.495 (MAIS-Head) - 0.271 (MAIS-Thorax) + 1.148 (Haemodynamic failure) + 0.708 (Respiratory failure) + 0.567 (Coagulopathy) + 0.580 (Mechanical ventilation) + 0.452 (Massive haemorrhage) - 5.432. The AUROC was 0.913 (0.903-0.923) in the derivation set and 0.929 (0.918-0.940) in the validation set.
Conclusions: The newly developed RETRASCORE is an early, easy-to-calculate and specific score to predict in-hospital mortality in trauma ICU patients. Although it has achieved adequate internal validation, it must be externally validated.
Keywords: Intensive care unit; Mortality; Prognostic scoring systems; Trauma and injury severity score.
© 2021. The Author(s).