Vaccine efficacy and SARS-CoV-2 control in California and U.S. during the session 2020-2026: A modeling study

Md Shahriar Mahmud; Md Kamrujjaman; Md Mashih Ibn Yasin Adan; Md Alamgir Hossain; Md Mizanur Rahman; Md Shahidul Islam; Muhammad Mohebujjaman; Md Mamun Molla

doi:10.1016/j.idm.2021.11.002

Vaccine efficacy and SARS-CoV-2 control in California and U.S. during the session 2020-2026: A modeling study

Infect Dis Model. 2022 Mar;7(1):62-81. doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2021.11.002. Epub 2021 Nov 27.

Authors

Md Shahriar Mahmud¹, Md Kamrujjaman^{2

3}, Md Mashih Ibn Yasin Adan², Md Alamgir Hossain⁴, Md Mizanur Rahman⁵, Md Shahidul Islam², Muhammad Mohebujjaman⁶, Md Mamun Molla^{7

8}

Affiliations

¹ Department of Computer Science and Engineering, State University of Bangladesh, Dhaka, 1205, Bangladesh.
² Department of Mathematics, University of Dhaka, Dhaka, 1000, Bangladesh.
³ Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada.
⁴ Computational Biology Research Lab (CBRL), Department of Pharmacy, Jagannath University, Dhaka, 1100, Bangladesh.
⁵ Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University, Naka Kunitachi, Tokyo, 186-8601, Japan.
⁶ Department of Mathematics and Physics, Texas A&M International University, Laredo, TX, 78 041, USA.
⁷ Department of Mathematics & Physics, North South University, Dhaka, 1229, Bangladesh.
⁸ Center for Applied Scientific Computing (CASC), North South University, Dhaka, 1229, Bangladesh.

Abstract

Background: Besides maintaining health precautions, vaccination has been the only prevention from SARS-CoV-2, though no clinically proved 100% effective vaccine has been developed till date. At this stage, to withhold the debris of this pandemic-experts need to know the impact of the vaccine efficacy rates, the threshold level of vaccine effectiveness and how long this pandemic may extent with vaccines that have different efficacy rates. In this article, a mathematical model study has been done on the importance of vaccination and vaccine efficiency rate during an ongoing pandemic.

Methods: We simulated a five compartment mathematical model to analyze the pandemic scenario in both California, and whole U.S. We considered four vaccines, Pfizer (95%), Moderna (94%), AstraZeneca (79%), and Johnson & Johnson (72%), which are being used rigorously to control the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, in addition with two special cases: a vaccine with 100% efficacy rate and no vaccine under use. SARS-CoV-2 related data of California, and U.S. were used in this study.

Findings: Both the infection and death rates are very high in California. Our model suggests that the pandemic situation in California will be under control in the last quartile of the year 2023 if vaccination program is continued with the Pfizer vaccine. During this time, six waves may happen from the beginning of the immunization where the case fatality and recovery rates will be 1.697% and 98.30%, respectively. However, according to the considered model, this period might be extended to the mid of 2024 when vaccines with lower efficacy rates are used. On the other hand, the daily cases and deaths in the U.S. will be under control at the end of 2026 with multiple waves. Although the number of susceptible people will fall down to none in the beginning of 2027, there is less chance to stop the vaccination program if vaccinated with a vaccine other than a 100% effective vaccine or Pfizer, and at that case vaccination program must run till the mid of 2028. According to this study, the unconfirmed-infectious and infected cases will be under control at the end of 2027 and at the mid of 2028, respectively.

Interpretation: The more effective a vaccine is, the less people suffer from this malign infection. Vaccines which are less than 90% effective do not have notable contribution to control the pandemic besides hard immunity. Furthermore, specific groups of people are getting prioritized initially, mass vaccination and quick responses are required to control the spread of this disease.

Keywords: California; Control measurement; Model; SARS-CoV-2; Vaccine.