Forecasting intermittent and sparse time series: A unified probabilistic framework via deep renewal processes

PLoS One. 2021 Nov 29;16(11):e0259764. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0259764. eCollection 2021.

Abstract

Intermittency are a common and challenging problem in demand forecasting. We introduce a new, unified framework for building probabilistic forecasting models for intermittent demand time series, which incorporates and allows to generalize existing methods in several directions. Our framework is based on extensions of well-established model-based methods to discrete-time renewal processes, which can parsimoniously account for patterns such as aging, clustering and quasi-periodicity in demand arrivals. The connection to discrete-time renewal processes allows not only for a principled extension of Croston-type models, but additionally for a natural inclusion of neural network based models-by replacing exponential smoothing with a recurrent neural network. We also demonstrate that modeling continuous-time demand arrivals, i.e., with a temporal point process, is possible via a trivial extension of our framework. This leads to more flexible modeling in scenarios where data of individual purchase orders are directly available with granular timestamps. Complementing this theoretical advancement, we demonstrate the efficacy of our framework for forecasting practice via an extensive empirical study on standard intermittent demand data sets, in which we report predictive accuracy in a variety of scenarios.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Cluster Analysis
  • Empirical Research
  • Humans
  • Models, Statistical
  • Neural Networks, Computer*

Grants and funding

The first three authors of this article (ACT, TJ, and YW) are employed by Amazon Web Services. The funder provided support in the form of salaries for authors ACT, TJ, YW, but did not have any additional role in the study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. The specific roles of these authors are articulated in the ‘author contributions’ section.