Multivariate analysis of the impact of weather and air pollution on emergency department visits for unprovoked seizure among children: A retrospective clinical observational study

Abstract

Background: An unprovoked seizure is a seizure or a cluster of seizures occurring within 24 h in a patient older than 1 month of age without precipitating factors. Recent studies have reported that extrinsic factors, such as meteorological conditions and air pollutants, may be important in seizure occurrence. Thus, this study aimed to examine the association between the number of visits to the emergency department (ED) by children for nighttime unprovoked seizures and exposure to multi-faceted factors, such as meteorological conditions and air pollution.

Methods: We conducted a clinical observational analysis and reviewed consecutive patients younger than 16 years of age who visited the primary ED center in Kobe City, Japan, during nighttime (7:30 p.m.-7:00 a.m.) between January 1, 2011 and December 31, 2015. We investigated the effects of meteorological factors and air pollutants on the number of patients with unprovoked seizures using multivariate analysis of Poisson regression estimates.

Results: In total, 151,119 children visited the ED, out of which 97 patients presented with unprovoked seizures. The mean age of the patients was 4.7 years (range, 1 month to 15.3 years), and 54.6% of them were boys. The total number of patients with unprovoked seizures showed no significant changes with the seasons; however, there were dominant peaks during the fall and fewer visits during the summer. The multivariate analysis of Poisson regression estimates revealed a significant positive relationship between the number of patients presenting with unprovoked seizures and precipitation (+1 patient/87 mm; p = 0.03) and methane (+1 patient/0.14 ppm; p = 0.03) levels and a negative relationship between the number of patients presenting with unprovoked seizures and nitrogen dioxide level (-1 patient/0.02 ppm; p = 0.04).

Conclusions: The present study is the first to evaluate the association between the number of children who presented to the ED with nighttime unprovoked seizures and environmental factors after controlling for confounding factors.

Keywords: Meteorology; Poisson regression estimates; Pollutants; Precipitation; Unprovoked seizure.