Endostatin may predict mortality and kidney impairment in general populations as well as in critically ill patients. We decided to explore the possible role of endostatin as a predictor of 30-day mortality, acute kidney injury (AKI), and renal replacement therapy (RRT) in a cohort of unselected intensive care unit (ICU) patients. Endostatin and creatinine in plasma were analyzed and SAPS3 was determined in 278 patients on ICU arrival at admission to a Swedish medium-sized hospital. SAPS3 had the highest predictive value, 0.85 (95% C.I.: 0.8-0.90), for 30-day mortality. Endostatin, in combination with age, predicted 30-day mortality by 0.76 (95% C.I.: 0.70-0.82). Endostatin, together with age and creatinine, predicted AKI with 0.87 (95% C.I.: 0.83-0.91). Endostatin predicted AKI with [0.68 (0.62-0.74)]. Endostatin predicted RRT, either alone [0.82 (95% C.I.: 0.72-0.91)] or together with age [0.81 (95% C.I.: 0.71-0.91)]. The predicted risk for 30-day mortality, AKI, or RRT during the ICU stay, predicted by plasma endostatin, was not influenced by age. Compared to the complex severity score SAPS3, circulating endostatin, combined with age, offers an easily managed option to predict 30-day mortality. Additionally, circulating endostatin combined with creatinine was closely associated with AKI development.
Keywords: SAPS3; acute kidney injury; critical illness; endostatin; epidemiology; intensive care unit; mortality; renal replacement therapy.