Due to insufficient understanding of human-water interaction, many water-related problems arise in watersheds, posing severe threats to the sustainability of watershed development. Although water environmental carrying capacity (WECC) is a powerful tool to support sustainable development of watersheds, few studies considered aquatic ecological factors and uncertainty in indicator values, leading to losses of sample information in the evaluation of WECC. This paper developed a systematic framework for comprehensive WECC assessment that included the indicator system and a novel variable fuzzy pattern recognition (VFPR) approach. The WECC index system incorporated aquatic ecological factors, and addressed uncertainties associated with the indicator values. The proposed VFPR-based assessment model could realize successive evaluation to retain more original information of the sample and distinguish similar result values by treating the sample as having a continuous degree of membership instead of the traditional point form. In addition, it could be more adaptable to various circumstances including extreme cases, and closely reflect the impacts of indicator changes on the results. The established evaluation framework has been applied to Dongjiang River Basin in Guangdong Province. The spatial differences and main influencing factors of WECC in the study area were analyzed. Results show that 50% and 16.7% of the sub-regions in the study area would be subject to a poor level of WECC under pessimistic and optimistic circumstances, respectively. WECCs in the upper and lower reaches are the best and worst, respectively, which is in line with the levels of economic development in the Dongjiang River Basin. The proposed method can also be applicable to many other problems involving numerous indicators.
Keywords: Evaluation index system; Modified variable fuzzy pattern recognition model; Uncertainty analysis; Water environmental carrying capacity.
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