Modelling aerosol-based exposure to SARS-CoV-2 by an agent based Monte Carlo method: Risk estimates in a shop and bar

PLoS One. 2021 Nov 22;16(11):e0260237. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0260237. eCollection 2021.

Abstract

Present day risk assessment on the spreading of airborne viruses is often based on the classical Wells-Riley model assuming immediate mixing of the aerosol into the studied environment. Here, we improve on this approach and the underlying assumptions by modeling the space-time dependency of the aerosol concentration via a transport equation with a dynamic source term introduced by the infected individual(s). In the present agent-based methodology, we study the viral aerosol inhalation exposure risk in two scenarios including a low/high risk scenario of a "supermarket"/"bar". The model takes into account typical behavioral patterns for determining the rules of motion for the agents. We solve a diffusion model for aerosol concentration in the prescribed environments in order to account for local exposure to aerosol inhalation. We assess the infection risk using the Wells-Riley model formula using a space-time dependent aerosol concentration. The results are compared against the classical Wells-Riley model. The results indicate features that explain individual cases of high risk with repeated sampling of a heterogeneous environment occupied by non-equilibrium concentration clouds. An example is the relative frequency of cases that might be called superspreading events depending on the model parameters. A simple interpretation is that averages of infection risk are often misleading. They also point out and explain the qualitative and quantitative difference between the two cases-shopping is typically safer for a single individual person.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Aerosols
  • Basic Reproduction Number*
  • COVID-19 / transmission*
  • Diffusion
  • Humans
  • Inhalation
  • Models, Statistical
  • Monte Carlo Method
  • Restaurants / statistics & numerical data
  • Social Behavior*

Substances

  • Aerosols

Grants and funding

This work was supported by the Academy of Finland (https://www.aka.fi/en/) grant number 335516. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.