Range Shifts Under Constant-Speed and Accelerated Climate Warming

Abstract

Many species are experiencing range shifts as the climate warms. Earlier models have considered moving-habitat scenarios where the shift speed of the moving habitat is either constant or fluctuates around a constant speed. This paper considers scenarios where the shifting speed may either be constant or accelerated. In addition to population persistence, the paper also analyzes the range-shift deficit, which is a lag in the spatial distribution of the population. Another highlight of the results is an analytic formula for a population persistence metric in a particular example, which adds to existing analytic formulas about this persistence metric in the literature.

Keywords: Climate warming; Integrodifference equation; Moving habitat model; Range shifts; Range-shift deficit.