Modeling the dispersal effect to reduce the infection of COVID-19 in Bangladesh

M Humayun Kabir; M Osman Gani; Sajib Mandal; M Haider Ali Biswas

doi:10.1016/j.sintl.2020.100043

Modeling the dispersal effect to reduce the infection of COVID-19 in Bangladesh

Sens Int. 2020:1:100043. doi: 10.1016/j.sintl.2020.100043. Epub 2020 Sep 28.

Authors

M Humayun Kabir^{1

2}, M Osman Gani^{1

2}, Sajib Mandal³, M Haider Ali Biswas⁴

Affiliations

¹ Department of Mathematics, Jahangirnagar University, Savar, Dhaka, 1342, Bangladesh.
² Center for Mathematical Modeling and Applications (CMMA), Meiji University, Tokyo, 164-8525, Japan.
³ Department of Mathematics, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Science and Technology University, Gopalganj, 8100, Bangladesh.
⁴ Mathematics Discipline, Science Engineering and Technology School, Khulna University, Khulna, 9208, Bangladesh.

Abstract

In this paper, we propose a four compartmental model to understand the dynamics of infectious disease COVID-19. We show the boundedness and non-negativity of solutions of the model. We analytically calculate the basic reproduction number of the model and perform the stability analysis at the equilibrium points to understand the epidemic and endemic cases based on the basic reproduction number. Our analytical results show that disease free equilibrium point is asymptotically stable (unstable) and endemic equilibrium point is unstable (asymptotically stable) if the basic reproduction number is less than (greater than) unity. The dispersal rate of the infected population and the social awareness control parameter are the main focus of this study. In our model, these parameters play a vital role to control the spread of COVID-19. Our results reveal that regional lockdown and social awareness (e.g., wearing a face mask, washing hands, social distancing) can reduce the pandemic of the current outbreak of novel coronavirus in a most densely populated country like Bangladesh.

Keywords: Bangladesh; COVID-19; Dispersal effect; Modeling; Regional lockdown; Social distancing.