The uncertainty in the timing and severity of disaster events makes the long-term planning of mitigation and recovery actions both critical and extremely difficult. Planners often use expected values for hazard occurrences, leaving communities vulnerable to worse-than-usual and even so-called "black swan" events. This research models disasters in terms of their best-case, most-likely, and worst-case damage estimates. These values are then embedded in a fuzzy goal programming model to provide community planners and stakeholders with the ability to strategize for any range of events from best-case to worst-case by adjusting goal weights. Examples are given illustrating the modeling approach, and an analysis is provided to illustrate how planners might use the model as a planning tool.
Keywords: Black swan; disaster budgeting; fuzzy sets.
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