Is climate change threatening or beneficial to the habitat distribution of global pangolin species? Evidence from species distribution modeling

Abstract

Global climate change caused by fossil energy consumption is strongly threatening the species diversity of mammals. In particular, changes in temperature and precipitation have affected the habitat of pangolins. Thus, we employed the MaxEnt modeling approach to simulate the potential habitat distribution of pangolins under the current climate and future climate change scenarios during 2081-2100. The habitats of the two Phataginus pangolins were mainly affected by temperature and precipitation. Conversely, geomorphological factors mainly affected the habitat of pangolins in the genus Smutsia. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the habitat of Smutsia gigantea increased by 460.8 Mha, while that of Smutsia temminckii decreased by 89.4 Mha. Temperature and altitude affected the habitat of Manis crassicaudata, while vegetation coverage affected the habitat of Manis javanica. Moreover, human activities threatened the habitat of pangolins in Africa and India. However, labor transfer in southern China weakened the negative effects of human activities on the survival of pangolins in rural regions. Due to the lack of uniform intergovernmental schemes regarding global pangolin protection, the illegal pangolin trade threatens pangolin species worldwide, especially in Africa. From current to future scenarios, climate change increased the habitats of Manis crassicaudata, Manis javanica, Smutsia gigantea and Phataginus tetradactyla, while the habitats of Manis pentadactyla and Smutsia temminckii were threatened. Moreover, the total habitat area of the pantropical distribution zone in the Southern Hemisphere (26°S-33°S) decreased, mainly due to the extensive reduction in Smutsia temminckii habitat. The habitat of the pantropical zone in the Northern Hemisphere (19°N-28°N) basically remained unchanged. Increases in the habitat of the tropical distribution zone (11°S-17°N) were dominated by habitat gains for Smutsia gigantea. These findings provide scientific evidence to support global pangolin protection.

Keywords: Climate change; Habitat distribution; MaxEnt modeling; Pangolins; Spatial analysis.