Concentration of organic carbon in Finnish catchments and variables involved in its variations

Abstract

The majority of the carbon worldwide is in soil. In a river catchment, the tight relationship between soil, water and climate makes carbon likely to be eroded and transported from the soil to the rivers. There are multiple variables which can trigger and accelerate the process. In order to assess the importance of the factors involved, and their interactions resulting in the changes in the carbon cycle within catchments, we have studied the catchments of 26 Finnish rivers from 2000 to 2019. These catchments are distributed all over Finland, but we have grouped them into three categories: southern, peatland and northern. We have run a boosted regression tree (BRT) analysis on chemical, physical, climatic and anthropogenic factors to determine their influence on the variations of total organic carbon (TOC) concentration. TOC concentration has decreased in Finland between 2000 and 2019 by 0.91 mg/l, driven principally by forest ditching and % old forest in the catchment. Old forest is especially dominant in the northern catchments with an influence on TOC of 40.5%. In southern and peatland catchments, average precipitation is an important factor to explain the changes in TOC whilst in northern catchments, organic fields have more influence.

Keywords: Boosted tree regression analysis; Catchments; Organic carbon; Water quality.