Trends, patterns and psychological influences on COVID-19 vaccination intention: Findings from a large prospective community cohort study in England and Wales (Virus Watch)

Thomas Byrne; Parth Patel; Madhumita Shrotri; Sarah Beale; Susan Michie; Jabeer Butt; Nicky Hawkins; Pia Hardelid; Alison Rodger; Anna Aryee; Isobel Braithwaite; Wing Lam Erica Fong; Ellen Fragaszy; Cyril Geismar; Jana Kovar; Annalan M D Navaratnam; Vincent Nguyen; Andrew Hayward; Robert W Aldridge; Virus Watch Collaborative

doi:10.1016/j.vaccine.2021.09.066

Trends, patterns and psychological influences on COVID-19 vaccination intention: Findings from a large prospective community cohort study in England and Wales (Virus Watch)

Vaccine. 2021 Nov 26;39(48):7108-7116. doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2021.09.066. Epub 2021 Oct 8.

Authors

Thomas Byrne¹, Parth Patel², Madhumita Shrotri³, Sarah Beale⁴, Susan Michie⁵, Jabeer Butt⁶, Nicky Hawkins⁷, Pia Hardelid⁸, Alison Rodger⁹, Anna Aryee³, Isobel Braithwaite³, Wing Lam Erica Fong³, Ellen Fragaszy¹⁰, Cyril Geismar⁴, Jana Kovar¹¹, Annalan M D Navaratnam⁴, Vincent Nguyen⁴, Andrew Hayward¹¹, Robert W Aldridge¹²; Virus Watch Collaborative

Collaborators

Virus Watch Collaborative:
Linda Wijlaar⁸, Eleni Nastouli¹³, Moira Spyer¹³, Ben Killingley¹⁴, Ingemar Cox¹⁵, Vasileios Lampos¹⁵, Rachel A McKendry¹⁶, Tao Cheng¹⁷, Yunzhe Liu¹⁷, Anne M Johnson¹⁸, Jo Gibbs¹⁸, Richard Gilson¹⁸

Affiliations

¹ Centre for Public Health Data Science, Institute of Health Informatics, University College, 222 Euston Rd, London NW1 2DA, UK. Electronic address: t.byrne@ucl.ac.uk.
² Centre for Public Health Data Science, Institute of Health Informatics, University College, 222 Euston Rd, London NW1 2DA, UK. Electronic address: parth.patel@ucl.ac.uk.
³ Centre for Public Health Data Science, Institute of Health Informatics, University College, 222 Euston Rd, London NW1 2DA, UK.
⁴ Centre for Public Health Data Science, Institute of Health Informatics, University College, 222 Euston Rd, London NW1 2DA, UK; Institute of Epidemiology and Health Care, University College London, 1-19 Torrington Place, London WC1E 7HB, UK.
⁵ Centre for Behaviour Change, University College London, 1-19 Torrington Place, London WC1E 7HB, UK.
⁶ Race Equality Foundation, 27 Greenwood Pl, London NW5 1LB, UK.
⁷ Independent Consultant, UK.
⁸ Department of Population, Policy and Practice, UCL Great Ormond Street Institute of Child Health, 30 Guilford St, London WC1N 1EH, UK.
⁹ Institute for Global Health, University College London, 30 Guilford St, London WC1N 1EH, UK; Royal Free London NHS Foundation Trust, Pond Street, London, NW3 2QG, UK.
¹⁰ Centre for Public Health Data Science, Institute of Health Informatics, University College, 222 Euston Rd, London NW1 2DA, UK; Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel St, London WC1E 7HT, UK.
¹¹ Institute of Epidemiology and Health Care, University College London, 1-19 Torrington Place, London WC1E 7HB, UK.
¹² Centre for Public Health Data Science, Institute of Health Informatics, University College, 222 Euston Rd, London NW1 2DA, UK. Electronic address: r.aldridge@ucl.ac.uk.
¹³ Department of Population, Policy and Practice, UCL Great Ormond Street Institute of Child Health, 30 Guilford St, London WC1N 1EH, UK; Francis Crick Institute, 1 Midland Rd, London NW1 1AT, UK.
¹⁴ Health Protection and Influenza Research Group, Division of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Nottingham School of Medicine, Nottingham, United Kingdom; University College London Hospital, Euston Rd, London WC1H 8NJ, United Kingdom.
¹⁵ Department of Computer Science, University College London, 17-19 Gordon Street, London WC1H 0AH, UK.
¹⁶ London Centre for Nanotechnology and Division of Medicine, London, UCL, UK.
¹⁷ SpaceTimeLab, Department of Civil, Environmental and Geomatic Engineering, University College London, London, UK.
¹⁸ Institute for Global Health, University College London, 30 Guilford St, London WC1N 1EH, UK.

Abstract

Background: Vaccination intention is key to the success of any vaccination programme, alongside vaccine availability and access. Public intention to take a COVID-19 vaccine is high in England and Wales compared to other countries, but vaccination rate disparities between ethnic, social and age groups has led to concern.

Methods: Online survey of prospective household community cohort study participants across England and Wales (Virus Watch). Vaccination intention was measured by individual participant responses to 'Would you accept a COVID-19 vaccine if offered?', collected in December 2020 and February 2021. Responses to a 13-item questionnaire collected in January 2021 were analysed using factor analysis to investigate psychological influences on vaccination intention.

Results: Survey response rate was 56% (20,785/36,998) in December 2020 and 53% (20,590/38,727) in February 2021, with 14,880 adults reporting across both time points. In December 2020, 1,469 (10%) participants responded 'No' or 'Unsure'. Of these people, 1,266 (86%) changed their mind and responded 'Yes' or 'Already had a COVID-19 vaccine' by February 2021. Vaccination intention increased across all ethnic groups and levels of social deprivation. Age was most strongly associated with vaccination intention, with 16-24-year-olds more likely to respond "Unsure" or "No" versus "Yes" than 65-74-year-olds in December 2020 (OR: 4.63, 95 %CI: 3.42, 6.27 & OR 7.17 95 %CI: 4.26, 12.07 respectively) and February 2021 (OR: 27.92 95 %CI: 13.79, 56.51 & OR 17.16 95 %CI: 4.12, 71.55). The association between ethnicity and vaccination intention weakened, but did not disappear, over time. Both vaccine- and illness-related psychological factors were shown to influence vaccination intention.

Conclusions: Four in five adults (86%) who were reluctant or intending to refuse a COVID-19 vaccine in December 2020 had changed their mind in February 2021 and planned to accept, or had already accepted, a vaccine.

Keywords: COVID-19; Intention; Public Health; Vaccine.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

Adult
COVID-19 Vaccines*
COVID-19*
Cohort Studies
England
Humans
Intention
Prospective Studies
SARS-CoV-2
Vaccination
Wales / epidemiology

Substances

COVID-19 Vaccines

Abstract

Publication types

MeSH terms

Substances

Grants and funding