Diagnosing underdetermination in stable isotope mixing models

PLoS One. 2021 Oct 1;16(10):e0257818. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0257818. eCollection 2021.

Abstract

Stable isotope mixing models (SIMMs) provide a powerful methodology for quantifying relative contributions of several sources to a mixture. They are widely used in the fields of ecology, geology, and archaeology. Although SIMMs have been rapidly evolved in the Bayesian framework, the underdetermination of mixing space remains problematic, i.e., the estimated relative contributions are incompletely identifiable. Here we propose a statistical method to quantitatively diagnose underdetermination in Bayesian SIMMs, and demonstrate the applications of our method (named β-dependent SIMM) using two motivated examples. Using a simulation example, we showed that the proposed method can rigorously quantify the expected underdetermination (i.e., intervals of β-dependent posterior) of relative contributions. Moreover, the application to the published field data highlighted two problematic aspects of the underdetermination: 1) ordinary SIMMs was difficult to quantify underdetermination of each source, and 2) the marginal posterior median was not necessarily consistent with the joint posterior peak in the case of underdetermination. Our study theoretically and numerically confirmed that β-dependent SIMMs provide a useful diagnostic tool for the underdetermined mixing problem. In addition to ordinary SIMMs, we recommend reporting the results of β-dependent SIMMs to obtain a biologically feasible and sound interpretation from stable isotope data.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Amino Acids / chemistry
  • Fatty Acids / chemistry
  • Isotopes / analysis*
  • Models, Theoretical*

Substances

  • Amino Acids
  • Fatty Acids
  • Isotopes

Grants and funding

This project was supported financially by JST CREST (Grant number JPMJCR13A3) and JSPS KAKENHI (Grant number JP21H04784) through grants awarded to YO, JM and IT. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.