Projection of Temperature-Related Excess Mortality by Integrating Population Adaptability Under Changing Climate - China, 2050s and 2080s

Zhiying Sun; Qing Wang; Chen Chen; Yang Yang; Meilin Yan; Hang Du; Kai Chen; John S Ji; Tiantian Li

doi:10.46234/ccdcw2021.174

Projection of Temperature-Related Excess Mortality by Integrating Population Adaptability Under Changing Climate - China, 2050s and 2080s

China CDC Wkly. 2021 Aug 13;3(33):697-701. doi: 10.46234/ccdcw2021.174.

Authors

Zhiying Sun^{1

2}, Qing Wang¹, Chen Chen¹, Yang Yang³, Meilin Yan⁴, Hang Du¹, Kai Chen⁵, John S Ji⁶, Tiantian Li¹

Affiliations

¹ China CDC Key Laboratory of Environment and Population Health, National Institute of Environmental Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.
² Institute of Environment and Health, Tianjin Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Tianjin, China.
³ Institute of Urban Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China.
⁴ School of Ecology and Environment, Beijing Technology and Business University, Beijing, China.
⁵ Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA.
⁶ Environmental Research Center, Duke Kunshan University, Durham, NC, USA.

Abstract

What is already known about this topic?: An increasing number of studies have projected temperature-related mortality, but few consider the change of population's adaptability to future temperature and mortality burden from cold and heat effects.

What is added by this report?: This study offers a comprehensive characterization of human adaptability and excess mortality burden of temperature across various regions of China.

What are the implications for public health practice?: The temperature-related excess mortality was projected to increase in the 2050s and decrease in the 2080s. Heat adaptability was projected to increase in the future, but along with the rising temperatures, the heat-related excess mortality continuously rose, except for the low-speed rising scenario. Although the excess mortality of cold was projected to decrease in the nearer future, it might not keep declining in the long run, due to the decreasing cold-adaptability, which deserves more attention.

Keywords: Climate change; Population adaptability; Temperature-related excess mortality; United scenarios.

Copyright and License information: Editorial Office of CCDCW, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention 2021.

Grants and funding

The Special Foundation of Basic Science and Technology Resources Survey of Ministry of Science and Technology of China (Grant No. 2017FY101204) and National High-level Talents Special Support Plan of China for Young Talents.