The estimated risk of SARS-CoV- 2 infection via cornea transplant in Canada

Abstract

In late 2019 the respiratory illness, Corona Virus Disease-19 caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus emerged in China and quickly spread to other countries. The primary mode of transmission is person-to-person via respiratory droplets. SARS-CoV-2 has been identified in conjunctiva. Transmission by cornea transplant has not been reported but is theoretically possible. We aimed to estimate the possible risk of transmission in Canada via cornea transplant during the first wave of the pandemic, and the potential risk reduction from testing decedents. We constructed a deterministic model in which the risk of transmission was estimated as the product of three proportions: decedents with SARS-CoV-2 infection, corneas that are NAT positive, and NAT positive corneas presumed to transmit. Risk was estimated according to 3 scenarios: most likely, optimistic and pessimistic. At the peak of the first wave of the pandemic risk was estimated to be 1 in 63,031 cornea transplants in Canada but could be as low as 1 in 175,821 or as high as 1 in 10,129. It would take 16 years at the peak infection of the first wave of the pandemic to observe 1 transmission. Testing would reduce the risk of 1 in 63,031 to 1 in 210,104 assuming 70% test sensitivity. The theoretical risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission by cornea transplant is extremely low and decedent testing is unlikely to be beneficial.

Keywords: COVID-19; Canada; Cornea transplant; Risk; SARS-CoV-2.