This paper analyzes and predicts age-sex mortality rates by causes in the Republic of Bashkortostan. The following methods of analysis were used: the Lee-Carter model, singular value decomposition, and ARIMA-modeling. The forecast results suggest that by 2025 the Republic of Bashkortostan will have lower mortality due to malignant neoplasms in all age groups, except for the 70+ group for women and 50+ age groups for men; lower mortality due to diseases of the circulatory system in all age groups for men and higher mortality in 45+ age groups for women; lower mortality due to injuries in all age groups for both sexes; no significant changes in mortality due to respiratory diseases; increased mortality from gastrointestinal diseases for both sexes at all ages, except for children; higher mortality due to infections at 20-54 for men and 20-64 for women; and almost half lower mortality from infections in the age group of 0-4 years for both sexes.
Keywords: ARIMA; Lee–Carter model; forecast; population mortality by causes.
© Pleiades Publishing, Ltd. 2021, ISSN 1075-7007, Studies on Russian Economic Development, 2021, Vol. 32, No. 5, pp. 536–548. © Pleiades Publishing, Ltd., 2021.Russian Text © The Author(s), 2021.