A multidimensional and multi-period analysis of safety on roads

Abstract

This paper proposes a multidimensional and multi-period analysis of safety on roads. It aggregates different road safety performance indicators observed over different periods for which multicriteria and multi-period approaches are used. The criticality of a road depends on the interaction of various factors, such as human factors, causes of accidents and their severity levels, and the characteristics/states of the roads. Therefore, there is a need for a multidimensional view of risk and its consequences concerning traffic accidents. Furthermore, using the Multiple Criteria Decision Making/Aid methods (MCDM/A) allows the performance of roads in the multiple criteria to be considered according to the decision maker's preferences. On the other hand, the temporal approach reflects the performance of roads and their accidents in different periods, enabling the information on the temporal behavior of accidents to be aggregated to the result. Given that Brazil has a vast road network, there is thus the problem of prioritizing road segments to allocate resources for traffic accident prevention and mitigation actions, especially as these resources are usually limited and scarce. For that, a case study is developed in the state of Pernambuco in Brazil. Eleven road segments are analyzed. The strategic objective of the decision-maker is to have a broader view, initially, of the criticality of these road segments in terms of safety so that strategically he can allocate resources to prevent and mitigate the risks of traffic accidents. For this, the decision-maker considered eleven criteria. These represent the different dimensions that can influence traffic accidents, such as the damage (impacts) to human beings or other consequences resulting from traffic accidents and issues related to the characteristics/state of the road and its traffic. Five periods of time were considered to incorporate the temporal influence of these dimensions (2015 to 2019). As a result, it is seen that, for a more comprehensive assessment, it is essential to consider a multidimensional view of risk and a multi-period evaluation, thus incorporating more information into the decision model and thereby making its results more assertive.

Keywords: Analysis of safety; Multi-period evaluation; Multidimensional risk; Multiple-criteria decision making; Road safety; Road safety performance indicator.