Outdoor thermal stress changes in South Korea: Increasing inter-annual variability induced by different trends of heat and cold stresses

Abstract

Changes of thermal environment can lead to unfavorable impacts such as a decrease of thermal stratification, increase of energy consumption, and increase of thermal health risk. Investigating changes in outdoor thermal environments can provide meaningful information for addressing economic and social issues and related challenges. In this study, thermal environment changes in South Korea were investigated using a nonstationary two-component Gaussian mixture model (NSGMM) for air temperature and two thermal comfort indices. For this, the perceived temperature (PT) and universal thermal climate index (UTCI) were employed as the thermal comfort index. Thermal comfort indices were computed using observed meteorological data at 26 weather stations for 37 years in South Korea. Meanwhile, trends of thermal comforts in the warm and cool seasons were simultaneously modeled by the NSGMM. The results indicate significant increasing trends in thermal comfort indices for South Korea. The increasing trends in thermal comfort indices both the warm and cool seasons were detected while the magnitudes of the trends are significantly different. This difference between the magnitude of trends led to an increase in mean and inter-annual variability of thermal comfort indices based on PT, while an increase of mean and decrease of inter-annual variability were observed based on the UTCI. Moreover, the annual proportion of the category referring to days in comfort based on the results of PT has decreased due to the different trends of thermal comfort indices in the warm and cool seasons. This decrease may lead to an increase of thermal health risk that is larger than what would be expected from the results considering the increasing trend of the annual mean temperature in South Korea. From this result, it can be inferred that the thermal health risk in South Korea may be more adverse than what we originally expected from the current temperature trend.

Keywords: Nonstationary modeling; Perceived temperature; Thermal comfort; Trend analysis; Universal thermal climate index.