Very Early Recurrence After Liver Resection for Colorectal Metastases: Incidence, Risk Factors, and Prognostic Impact

Abstract

Background: Liver resection for colorectal metastases is affected by a non-negligible recurrence rate. The earlier the recurrence, the worse the prognosis. We analyzed an unexplored topic, i.e., the incidence, predictive factors, and prognostic impact of very early recurrence (≤ 3 months after hepatectomy).

Methods: All consecutive liver resections for colorectal metastases performed between 2004 and 2017 were retrospectively reviewed. Inclusion criteria were available recurrence status at 3 months after resection and follow-up ≥ 12 months.

Results: Overall, 484 patients were analyzed; 56 (11.6%) had very early recurrence. Independent predictors were number of metastases (very early recurrence in 3.7% of patients with solitary metastasis, 8.1% of those with 2-9 metastases; 20.0% of those with 10-14 metastases; 44.4% of those with ≥ 15 metastases, p < 0.001) and extrahepatic disease (very early recurrence in 23.2% of patients with vs. 10.1% of those without extrahepatic disease, p = 0.017). Very early recurrence rate in patients with ≥ 15 metastases and simultaneous extrahepatic disease was 71.4%. Patients with very early recurrence had poor survival (5-year survival 17.3% vs. 44.5% of non-very early recurrence patients, p < 0.001), worse than patients with 3-to-6 months recurrence (p = 0.070), and no different from unresected patients (p = 0.114). Fifteen patients with very early recurrence (26.8%) underwent repeated treatment with adequate survival (at 3 years 42.2%), but seven had a further recurrence within 3 months.

Conclusions: Very early recurrence occurs in about 12% of patients undergoing aggressive surgery for colorectal metastases. The risk is increased in patients with numerous metastases or extrahepatic disease. Very early recurrence is associated with very poor prognosis, similar to that of unresected patients, and a low chance of effective repeated treatment.

Keywords: Early recurrence; Extrahepatic metastases; Liver surgery for colorectal metastases; Overall survival; Progression-free survival.