Current research on technological progress does not focus on whether there is a biased selection of technological progress based on the resulting pollutant emissions and the emission reduction effect. This paper measures green total factor productivity for 30 provinces in China from 2004-2018 and tests whether technological progress is selectively biased towards the pollutants emitted. The results find a selective bias of technological progress on pollutant emissions, and there is also heterogeneity in the selective bias across regions. The current level of technological progress is on the right side of the inverted U-shaped inflection point for SO2 and PM2.5 and the left side of the inverted U-shaped inflection point for CO2. The improvement of technological progress can reduce the emissions of SO2 and PM2.5. Still, the results indicate that the reduction effect of these two pollutants originates from the treatment process rather than reducing the source of the production side. The inability of technological advancement to reduce CO2 emissions suggests some carbon lock-in in China's technological advancement. The Chinese government should increase the proportion of new energy applications and reduce the production methods of polluting industries to reduce pollutants effectively.
Keywords: inverted U-shape; pollutant emissions; technological progress; technological progress bias.