Application of novel framework approach for prediction of nitrate concentration susceptibility in coastal multi-aquifers, Bangladesh

Abstract

This study aims to construct a novel framework approach for predicting and mapping nitrate concentration susceptibility in the coastal multi-aquifers of Bangladesh by coupling the K-fold cross-validation method and novel ensemble learning algorithms, including Boosting, Bagging and Random Forest (RF). In total, 286 nitrate sampling sites were employed in the model work. The dataset was demarcated into a 75:25 ratio for model construction (75% 3-fold ≅ 214 sites) and (25% 1-fold ≅ 72 sites) for model validation using the 4-fold cross-validation schemes. A total of 14 groundwater causative factors including salinity, depth, pH, EC, As, HCO₃^-, F^-, Cl^-, SO₄^2-, PO₄^2-, Na⁺, K⁺, Mg²⁺, and Ca²⁺ were adopted for the construction of the proposed models. OneR relative importance model was employed to choose and rank critical factors for spatial nitrate modeling. The results showed that depth, pH and As are the most influential causative factors in the elevated nitrate concentration in groundwater. Based on the model assessment criteria such as receiver operating characteristic (ROC)'s AUC (area under curve), sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, precession, F score, and Kappa coefficient, the Boosting model outperforms others (r = 0.92, AUG ≥ 0.90) in mapping nitrate concentration susceptibility, followed by Bagging and RF models. The results of mapping nitrate concentration also demonstrated that the south-central and western regions had an elevated amount of nitrate content than other regions due to depth variation in the study area. During our sampling campaign, we observed hundreds of fish hatcheries operation, a fish landing center and aquaculture farms which are the reasons for overexploitation and excessive agrochemicals used in the study area. Thus, the dependability of ensemble learning modeling verifies the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed novel approach for decision-makers in groundwater pollution management at the local and regional levels.

Keywords: Bagging; Boosting; Coastal districts; Groundwater resource; Nitrate pollution; Southern Bangladesh.