Validating species distribution models to illuminate coastal fireflies in the South Pacific (Coleoptera: Lampyridae)

Abstract

The coastal areas of Vanuatu are under a multitude of threats stemming from commercialization, human development, and climate change. Atyphella Olliff is a genus of firefly that includes species endemic to these coastal areas and will need protection. The research that has already been conducted was affected by accessibility due to the remote nature of the islands which left numerous knowledge gaps caused by a lack of distributional data (e.g., Wallacean shortfall). Species distribution models (SDM) are a powerful tool that allow for the modeling of the broader distribution of a taxon, even with limited distributional data available. SDMs assist in filling the knowledge gap by predicting potential areas that could contain the species of interest, making targeted collecting and conservation efforts more feasible when time, resources, and accessibility are major limiting factors. Here a MaxEnt prediction was used to direct field collecting and we now provide an updated predictive distribution for this endemic firefly genus. The original model was validated with additional fieldwork, ultimately expanding the known range with additional locations first identified using MaxEnt. A bias analysis was also conducted, providing insight into the effect that developments such as roads and settlements have on collecting and therefore the SDM, ultimately allowing for a more critical assessment of the overall model. After demonstrating the accuracy of the original model, this new updated SDM can be used to identify specific areas that will need to be the target of future conservation efforts by local government officials.