Early assessment of the relationship between the COVID-19 pandemic and births in high-income countries

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2021 Sep 7;118(36):e2105709118. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2105709118.

Abstract

Drawing on past pandemics, scholars have suggested that the COVID-19 pandemic will bring about fertility decline. Evidence from actual birth data has so far been scarce. This brief report uses data on vital statistics from a selection of high-income countries, including the United States. The pandemic has been accompanied by a significant drop in crude birth rates beyond that predicted by past trends in 7 out of the 22 countries considered, with particularly strong declines in southern Europe: Italy (-9.1%), Spain (-8.4%), and Portugal (-6.6%). Substantial heterogeneities are, however, observed.

Keywords: COVID-19; baby bust; birth rates; fertility; pandemics.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Birth Rate*
  • COVID-19 / epidemiology
  • Europe / epidemiology
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Pandemics / economics
  • Pandemics / statistics & numerical data*
  • Population Growth
  • Pregnancy
  • United States / epidemiology