Differential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on laboratory reporting of norovirus and Campylobacter in England: A modelling approach

PLoS One. 2021 Aug 25;16(8):e0256638. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0256638. eCollection 2021.

Abstract

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted surveillance activities for multiple pathogens. Since March 2020, there was a decline in the number of reports of norovirus and Campylobacter recorded by England's national laboratory surveillance system. The aim is to estimate and compare the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on norovirus and Campylobacter surveillance data in England.

Methods: We utilised two quasi-experimental approaches based on a generalised linear model for sequential count data. The first approach estimates overall impact and the second approach focuses on the impact of specific elements of the pandemic response (COVID-19 diagnostic testing and control measures). The following time series (27, 2015-43, 2020) were used: weekly laboratory-confirmed norovirus and Campylobacter reports, air temperature, conducted Sars-CoV-2 tests and Index of COVID-19 control measures stringency.

Results: The period of Sars-CoV-2 emergence and subsequent sustained transmission was associated with persistent reductions in norovirus laboratory reports (p = 0.001), whereas the reductions were more pronounced during pandemic emergence and later recovered for Campylobacter (p = 0.075). The total estimated reduction was 47% - 79% for norovirus (12-43, 2020). The total reduction varied by time for Campylobacter, e.g. 19% - 33% in April, 1% - 7% in August.

Conclusion: Laboratory reporting of norovirus was more adversely impacted than Campylobacter by the COVID-19 pandemic. This may be partially explained by a comparatively stronger effect of behavioural interventions on norovirus transmission and a relatively greater reduction in norovirus testing capacity. Our study underlines the differential impact a pandemic may have on surveillance of gastrointestinal infectious diseases.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • COVID-19 / epidemiology*
  • COVID-19 / virology
  • COVID-19 Testing
  • Caliciviridae Infections / diagnosis*
  • Caliciviridae Infections / epidemiology
  • Caliciviridae Infections / virology
  • Campylobacter / isolation & purification
  • Campylobacter Infections / diagnosis*
  • Campylobacter Infections / epidemiology
  • Campylobacter Infections / microbiology
  • England / epidemiology
  • Humans
  • Laboratories / statistics & numerical data*
  • Norovirus / isolation & purification
  • Pandemics
  • SARS-CoV-2 / isolation & purification

Grants and funding

NO is funded by EPSRC and ESRC Centre for Doctoral Training in Quantification and Management of Risk & Uncertainty in Complex Systems & Environments - Grant No. (EP/L015927/1).Funding website: https://gow.epsrc.ukri.org/NGBOViewGrant.aspx?GrantRef=EP/L015927/1 The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.