Progress of South East Asian Region countries towards achieving interim End TB strategy targets for TB incidence and mortality: a modelling study

Abstract

Objectives: In 2018, the World Health Organisation (WHO) reported that almost 10 million people worldwide had tuberculosis (TB). The majority of the TB cases were concentrated in South East Asian Region (SEAR) countries. To curb this burden, the WHO has set interim targets to reduce TB incidence by 50% and mortality by 75% by 2025 (interim targets of the 'End TB' strategy). Hence, this study was conducted to determine the progress of SEAR countries towards reaching these interim targets for TB incidence and mortality.

Methods: Secondary data analysis was performed using information from the WHO Global Health Observatory and Global Health Estimates for all SEAR countries. ARIMA modelling was used to forecast TB incidence and TB mortality from 2000 to 2025. Joinpoint regression was performed to determine the average annual percent change.

Results: Based on the current trend, we estimated that the incidence and mortality of TB in SEAR countries will decline to 3.7 million (4.37 million in 2018) and 495,280 (650,979 in 2016) by 2025, respectively. Projected age-standardised TB incidence showed a significant decline in only four SEAR countries, with the maximal decline in Myanmar (47.3%) followed by India (23.4%) compared with 2015 estimates. Age-standardised TB mortality showed a declining trend in six SEAR countries, with the maximum decline found in Myanmar (60.3%) followed by Thailand (39.0%).

Conclusions: Current study findings show that it is highly unlikely for most SEAR countries to achieve the WHO recommended interim End TB targets of 50% reduction in incidence and 75% reduction in mortality by 2025.

Keywords: Epidemiology; Forecasting; Southeastern Asia; Tuberculosis.