Projections of surface air temperature required to sustain permafrost and importance of adaptation to climate change in the Daisetsu Mountains, Japan

Abstract

Permafrost is known to occur in high mountainous areas such as the Daisetsu Mountains in Japan, which are located at the southernmost limit of the permafrost distribution in the world. In this study, areas with climatic conditions suitable for sustaining permafrost in the Daisetsu Mountains are projected using bias-corrected and downscaled climate model outputs and statistical relationships between surface air temperatures and permafrost areas. Using freezing and thawing indices, the size of the area in the Daisetsu Mountains where climatic conditions were suitable for permafrost were estimated to be approximately 150 km² in 2010. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, this area is projected to decrease to about 30 km² by 2050 and it is projected to disappear by around 2070. Under the RCP2.6 scenario, the area is projected to decrease to approximately 20 km² by 2100. The degradation of mountain permafrost could potentially affect the stability of trekking trails due to slope displacement, and it may also have deleterious effects on current alpine ecosystems. It is therefore important to accurately monitor changes in the mountain ecosystem environment and to implement measures to adapt to an environment that is projected to change significantly in the future.