Temporal Changes in the Risk of Superspreading Events of Coronavirus Disease 2019

Jun-Sik Lim; Eunbi Noh; Eunha Shim; Sukhyun Ryu

doi:10.1093/ofid/ofab350

Temporal Changes in the Risk of Superspreading Events of Coronavirus Disease 2019

Open Forum Infect Dis. 2021 Jun 30;8(7):ofab350. doi: 10.1093/ofid/ofab350. eCollection 2021 Jul.

Authors

Jun-Sik Lim^{1

2}, Eunbi Noh^{1

3}, Eunha Shim⁴, Sukhyun Ryu³

Affiliations

¹ Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea.
² College of Veterinary Medicine and Institute of Veterinary Science, Kangwon National University, Chuncheon, South Korea.
³ Department of Preventive Medicine, Konyang University College of Medicine, Daejeon, South Korea.
⁴ Department of Mathematics, Soongsil University, Seoul, South Korea.

Abstract

To identify the temporal change in the possible risk of superspreading events, we estimated the overdispersion parameter in 2 different periods of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. We determined that the possible risk of superspreading events was reduced 90% during the second epidemic period in South Korea.

Keywords: coronavirus; infectiousness; overdispersion; superspreading; transmission.