Calculation and realization of new method grey residual error correction model

PLoS One. 2021 Jul 19;16(7):e0254154. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0254154. eCollection 2021.

Abstract

Aiming at the problem of prediction accuracy of stochastic volatility series, this paper proposes a method to optimize the grey model(GM(1,1)) from the perspective of residual error. In this study, a new fitting method is firstly used, which combines the wavelet function basis and the least square method to fit the residual data of the true value and the predicted value of the grey model(GM(1,1)). The residual prediction function is constructed by using the fitting method. Then, the prediction function of the grey model(GM(1,1)) is modified by the residual prediction function. Finally, an example of the wavelet residual-corrected grey prediction model (WGM) is obtained. The test results show that the fitting accuracy of the wavelet residual-corrected grey prediction model has irreplaceable advantages.

MeSH terms

  • Forecasting / methods
  • Fourier Analysis
  • Humans
  • Models, Theoretical*
  • Stochastic Processes*

Grants and funding

The authors received no specific funding for this work.