Team numerical advantage in Australian rules football: A missing piece of the scoring puzzle?

PLoS One. 2021 Jul 16;16(7):e0254591. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0254591. eCollection 2021.

Abstract

The primary aim of this study was to determine the relationship between a team numerical advantage during structured phases of play and match event outcomes in professional Australian football. The secondary aim was to quantify how players occupy different sub-areas of the playing field in match play, while accounting for match phase and ball location. Spatiotemporal player tracking data and play-by-play event data from professional players and teams were collected from the 2019 Australian Football League season played at a single stadium. Logistic regression analysed the relationship between total players and team numerical advantage during clearances and inside 50's. Total players and team numerical advantage were also quantified continuously throughout a match, which were separated into three match phases (offence, defence, and stoppage) and four field positions (defensive 50, defensive midfield, attacking midfield, and forward 50). Results identified an increased team numerical advantage produced a greater likelihood of gaining possession from clearances or generating a score from inside 50's. Although, an increased number of total players inside 50 was likely associated with a concomitant decrease in the probability of scoring, irrespective of a team numerical advantage. Teams were largely outnumbered when the ball was in their forward 50 but attained a numerical advantage when the ball was in the defensive 50.

MeSH terms

  • Australia
  • Competitive Behavior
  • Humans
  • Logistic Models
  • Models, Statistical*
  • Team Sports*

Grants and funding

The authors Jeremy Alexander (JA), Karl Jackson (KJ), and Timothy Bedin (TB) are part-time or full-time employees of Champion Data. The funder provided support in the form of salaries for authors JA, KJ, and TB, but did not have any additional role in the study design, statistical analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. The specific roles of these authors are articulated in the ‘author contributions’ section.