A unifying nonlinear probabilistic epidemic model in space and time

Sci Rep. 2021 Jul 5;11(1):13860. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-93388-1.

Abstract

Covid-19 epidemic dramatically relaunched the importance of mathematical modelling in supporting governments decisions to slow down the disease propagation. On the other hand, it remains a challenging task for mathematical modelling. The interplay between different models could be a key element in the modelling strategies. Here we propose a continuous space-time non-linear probabilistic model from which we can derive many of the existing models both deterministic and stochastic as for example SI, SIR, SIR stochastic, continuous-time stochastic models, discrete stochastic models, Fisher-Kolmogorov model. A partial analogy with the statistical interpretation of quantum mechanics provides an interpretation of the model. Epidemic forecasting is one of its possible applications; in principle, the model can be used in order to locate those regions of space where the infection probability is going to increase. The connection between non-linear probabilistic and non-linear deterministic models is analyzed. In particular, it is shown that the Fisher-Kolmogorov equation is connected to linear probabilistic models. On the other hand, a generalized version of the Fisher-Kolmogorov equation is derived from the non-linear probabilistic model and is shown to be characterized by a non-homogeneous time-dependent diffusion coefficient (anomalous diffusion) which encodes information about the non-linearity of the probabilistic model.

MeSH terms

  • Algorithms*
  • COVID-19 / epidemiology*
  • Computer Simulation
  • Humans
  • Models, Biological
  • Models, Statistical*
  • Models, Theoretical
  • SARS-CoV-2 / pathogenicity*
  • Stochastic Processes