Beyond Sedlis-A novel histology-specific nomogram for predicting cervical cancer recurrence risk: An NRG/GOG ancillary analysis

Abstract

Purpose: The Sedlis criteria define risk factors for recurrence warranting post-hysterectomy radiation for early-stage cervical cancer; however, these factors were defined for squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) at an estimated recurrence risk of ≥30%. Our study evaluates and compares risk factors for recurrence for cervical SCC compared with adenocarcinoma (AC) and develops histology-specific nomograms to estimate risk of recurrence and guide adjuvant treatment.

Methods: We performed an ancillary analysis of GOG 49, 92, and 141, and included stage I patients who were surgically managed and received no neoadjuvant/adjuvant therapy. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate independent risk factors for recurrence by histology and to generate prognostic histology-specific nomograms for 3-year recurrence risk.

Results: We identified 715 patients with SCC and 105 with AC; 20% with SCC and 17% with AC recurred. For SCC, lymphvascular space invasion (LVSI: HR 1.58, CI 1.12-2.22), tumor size (TS ≥4 cm: HR 2.67, CI 1.67-4.29), and depth of invasion (DOI; middle 1/3, HR 4.31, CI 1.81-10.26; deep 1/3, HR 7.05, CI 2.99-16.64) were associated with recurrence. For AC, only TS ≥4 cm, was associated with recurrence (HR 4.69, CI 1.25-17.63). For both histologies, there was an interaction effect between TS and LVSI. For those with SCC, DOI was most associated with recurrence (16% risk); for AC, TS conferred a 15% risk with negative LVSI versus a 25% risk with positive LVSI.

Conclusions: Current treatment standards are based on the Sedlis criteria, specifically derived from data on SCC. However, risk factors for recurrence differ for squamous cell and adenocarcinoma of the cervix. Histology-specific nomograms accurately and linearly represent risk of recurrence for both SCC and AC tumors and may provide a more contemporary and tailored tool for clinicians to base adjuvant treatment recommendations to their patients with cervical cancer.

Keywords: Adenocarcinoma; Adjuvant radiation; Cervical cancer; Stage I.