Assessing agricultural drought management strategies in the Northern Murray-Darling Basin

Isabella Aitkenhead; Yuriy Kuleshov; Andrew B Watkins; Jessica Bhardwaj; Atifa Asghari

doi:10.1007/s11069-021-04884-6

Assessing agricultural drought management strategies in the Northern Murray-Darling Basin

Nat Hazards (Dordr). 2021;109(2):1425-1455. doi: 10.1007/s11069-021-04884-6. Epub 2021 Jun 23.

Authors

Isabella Aitkenhead^{1

2}, Yuriy Kuleshov^{2

3

4}, Andrew B Watkins², Jessica Bhardwaj^{1

2}, Atifa Asghari^{1

2}

Affiliations

¹ Monash University, Clayton, VIC Australia.
² Bureau of Meteorology, Docklands, VIC Australia.
³ Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology (RMIT) University, Melbourne, VIC Australia.
⁴ The University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC Australia.

Abstract

The Northern Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) is a key Australian agricultural region requiring efficient Agricultural Drought Management (ADM), focused on resilience. Although a need for resilience in local farming communities has long been recognised, previous studies assessing ADM in the Northern MDB did not consider two key elements of resilient management: proactivity (preparing for drought prior to a drought event) and suitability (localised drought management targeted at decision-makers). This study assessed the current ADM Strategy (ADMS) implemented within five selected Northern MDB Local Government Areas (LGAs) (Paroo Shire, Balonne Shire, Murweh Shire, Maranoa Region, and Goondiwindi Region), specifically investigating the extent of ADMS proactivity, effectiveness, and suitability. To investigate suitability, drought risk extent of each LGA was determined. A region-specific drought risk index consisting of hazard, vulnerability and exposure indices was developed; risk mapping was conducted. All LGAs displayed very high levels of drought risk due to hazardous climatic conditions, vulnerable socio-economic attributes, and drought-exposed geographical features. A Criteria-Based Ranking (CBR) survey produced a quantitative effectiveness and proactivity rank for each major ADMS used in the Northern MDB. Government Assistance was the most proactive and effective ADMS. Strategy effectiveness ranks of the major ADMS used and drought risk extent found in each LGA were correlated to determine ADMS suitability. Overall, Balonne Shire and the Goondiwindi Region were identified as high priority areas requiring improved ADM. A user-centred Integrated Early Warning System (I-EWS) for drought could potentially increase ADM proactivity and suitability in such areas, strengthening drought resilience of farming communities.

Keywords: Agricultural Drought Management Strategy; Australia; Climate resilience; Climate risk; Drought preparedness; Early warning system for drought; Northern Murray–Darling Basin.