In our study, we aimed to assess the long-term risk of gastric cardia adenocarcinoma (GCA) for patients with different histological cardia lesions to inform future guidelines for GCA screening in China. We conducted a population-based prospective study among 9740 subjects who underwent upper endoscopy screening during 2005 to 2009 and followed until December 2017. Cumulative incidence and mortality rates of GCA were calculated by the baseline histological diagnoses, and the hazard ratios (HRs), overall and by age and sex, were analyzed by Cox proportional hazards models. During a median follow-up of 10 years, we identified 123 new GCA cases (1.26%) and 31 GCA deaths (0.32%). The age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of GCA were 128.71/100 000 and 35.69/100 000 person-years, and cumulative incidence rate in patients with cardia high-grade dysplasia (CHGD), cardia low-grade dysplasia (CLGD) and atrophic carditis (AC)/cardia intestinal metaplasia (CIM) was 25%, 3.05% and 1.58%, respectively. The progression rate and cancer risk of GCA increased monotonically with each step in Correa's cascade. Individuals aged 50 to 69 years had 4.4 times higher GCA incidence than those aged 40 to 49 years. Patients with CLGD had a significantly higher 3-year GCA incidence than the normal group, while patients with AC/CIM had a comparable GCA risk during 3-year follow-up but a higher risk at 5-year intervals. Our results suggested a postponed starting age of 50 years for GCA screening, immediate treatment for patients with CHGD, a 3-year surveillance interval for patients with CLGD, and a lengthened surveillance interval of 5 years for patients with AC/CIM.
Keywords: gastric cardia adenocarcinoma; population-based prospective study; precursor lesions; progression rate.
© 2021 UICC.