Integrated Climate-Change Assessment Scenarios and Carbon Dioxide Removal

Vanessa J Schweizer; Kristie L Ebi; Detlef P van Vuuren; Henry D Jacoby; Keywan Riahi; Jessica Strefler; Kiyoshi Takahashi; Bas J van Ruijven; John P Weyant

doi:10.1016/j.oneear.2020.08.001

Integrated Climate-Change Assessment Scenarios and Carbon Dioxide Removal

One Earth. 2020 Aug 21;3(2):166-172. doi: 10.1016/j.oneear.2020.08.001.

Authors

Vanessa J Schweizer^{1

2}, Kristie L Ebi³, Detlef P van Vuuren^{4

5}, Henry D Jacoby⁶, Keywan Riahi⁷, Jessica Strefler⁸, Kiyoshi Takahashi⁹, Bas J van Ruijven⁷, John P Weyant¹⁰

Affiliations

¹ Department of Knowledge Integration, Faculty of Environment, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, Canada.
² Balsillie School of International Affairs, Waterloo, ON, Canada.
³ Center for Health and the Global Environment, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
⁴ PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven, the Netherlands.
⁵ Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands.
⁶ Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA.
⁷ International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.
⁸ Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany.
⁹ Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan.
¹⁰ Department of Management Science & Engineering and Director, Energy Modeling Forum, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.

Abstract

To halt climate change this century, we must reduce carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from human activities to net zero. Any emission sources, such as in the energy or land-use sectors, must be balanced by natural or technological carbon sinks that facilitate CO₂ removal (CDR) from the atmosphere. Projections of demand for large-scale CDR are based on an integrated scenario framework for emission scenarios composed of emission profiles as well as alternative socio-economic development trends and social values consistent with them. The framework, however, was developed years before systematic reviews of CDR entered the literature. This primer provides an overview of the purposes of scenarios in climate-change research and how they are used. It also introduces the integrated scenario framework and why it came about. CDR studies using the scenario framework, as well as its limitations, are discussed. Possible future developments for the scenario framework are highlighted, especially in relation to CDR.

Publication types

Review