Per-Protocol analyses produced larger treatment effect sizes than intention to treat: a meta-epidemiological study

J Clin Epidemiol. 2021 Oct:138:12-21. doi: 10.1016/j.jclinepi.2021.06.010. Epub 2021 Jun 20.

Abstract

Objective: To undertake meta-analysis and compare treatment effects estimated by the intention-to-treat (ITT) method and per-protocol (PP) method in randomized controlled trials (RCTs). PP excludes trial participants who are non-adherent to trial protocol in terms of eligibility, interventions, or outcome assessment.

Study design and setting: Five high impact journals were searched for all RCTs published between July 2017 to June 2019. Primary outcome was a pooled estimate that quantified the difference between the treatment effects estimated by the two methods. Results are presented as ratio of odds ratios (ROR). Meta-regression was used to explore the association between level of trial protocol non-adherence and treatment effect. Sensitivity analyses compared results with varying within-study correlations and across various study characteristics.

Results: Random-effects meta-analysis (N = 156) showed that PP estimates were on average 2% greater compared to the ITT estimates (ROR: 1.02, 95% CI: 1.00-1.04, P = 0.03). The divergence further increased with higher degree of protocol non-adherence. Sensitivity analyses reassured consistent results with various within-study correlations and across various study characteristics.

Conclusion: There was evidence of larger treatment effect with PP compared to ITT analysis. PP analysis should not be used to assess the impact of protocol non-adherence in RCTs. Instead, in addition to ITT, investigators should consider randomization based casual method such as Complier Average Causal Effect (CACE).

Keywords: Complier average causal effect (CACE); Intention-to-treat; Meta-epidemiology; Non-adherence; Per-protocol; Randomised controlled trial.

Publication types

  • Comparative Study

MeSH terms

  • Biomedical Research / statistics & numerical data
  • Clinical Protocols*
  • Epidemiologic Studies*
  • Humans
  • Intention to Treat Analysis / statistics & numerical data*
  • Meta-Analysis as Topic*
  • Periodicals as Topic / statistics & numerical data
  • Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic / statistics & numerical data*
  • Research Design / statistics & numerical data*
  • Research Design / trends*