State-of-the-art machine learning algorithms for the prediction of outcomes after contemporary heart transplantation: Results from the UNOS database

Abstract

Purpose: We sought to develop and validate machine learning (ML) models to increase the predictive accuracy of mortality after heart transplantation (HT).

Methods and results: We included adult HT recipients from the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) database between 2010 and 2018 using solely pre-transplant variables. The study cohort comprised 18 625 patients (53 ± 13 years, 73% males) and was randomly split into a derivation and a validation cohort with a 3:1 ratio. At 1-year after HT, there were 2334 (12.5%) deaths. Out of a total of 134 pre-transplant variables, 39 were selected as highly predictive of 1-year mortality via feature selection algorithm and were used to train five ML models. AUC for the prediction of 1-year survival was .689, .642, .649, .637, .526 for the Adaboost, Logistic Regression, Decision Tree, Support Vector Machine, and K-nearest neighbor models, respectively, whereas the Index for Mortality Prediction after Cardiac Transplantation (IMPACT) score had an AUC of .569. Local interpretable model-agnostic explanations (LIME) analysis was used in the best performing model to identify the relative impact of key predictors. ML models for 3- and 5-year survival as well as acute rejection were also developed in a secondary analysis and yielded AUCs of .629, .609, and .610 using 27, 31, and 91 selected variables respectively.

Conclusion: Machine learning models showed good predictive accuracy of outcomes after heart transplantation.

Keywords: UNOS; graft failure; heart transplantation; machine learning.