Forecasting the morbidity and mortality of dengue fever in KSA: A time series analysis (2006-2016)

Abstract

Objectives: This study aimed to forecast the morbidity and mortality of dengue fever using a time series analysis from 2006 to 2016.

Methods: Data were compiled from the Jeddah Dengue Fever Operations Room (RFOR) in a primary health care centre. A time series analysis was conducted for all confirmed cases of dengue fever between 2006 and 2016.

Results: The results showed a significant seasonal association, particularly from May to September, and a time-varying behaviour. Air temperature was significantly associated with the incidence of dengue fever (p < 0.001) but was not correlated with its mortality. Similarly, relative humidity was not significantly associated with the incidence of dengue fever (p = 0.237).

Conclusion: The strong seasonal association of dengue fever during May to September and its relation to air temperature should be communicated to all stakeholders. This will help improve the control interventions of dengue fever during periods of anticipated high incidence.

Keywords: Dengue fever; Forecasting; Public health; Time series analysis; Viral infection.