Background: This study aimed to establish an effective and practical prognostic index for esophageal squamous cell cancer (ESCC) based on the coagulation factors.
Methods: The training cohort of 965 patients with ESCC was retrospectively collected at Sichuan Cancer Hospital from 2012 to 2014, along with clinical characteristics and follow-up information. Risk factors of coagulation status, including 11 blood parameters (platelet [PLT], mean platelet volume [MPV], platelet distribution width [PDW], plateletocrit [PCT], thrombin time [TT], prothrombin time [PT], international normalized ratio [INR], activated partial thromboplastin time [APTT], fibrinogen, D-dimer, and fibrinogen degradation product [FDP]), were studied by least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) Cox regression and the Coagulation Index was established. The index was validated in a cohort of 848 patients with ESCC at the same institution, from 2015 to 2016.
Results: Three variables of PLT, MPV, and fibrinogen were identified by selecting features with coefficients in the LASSO algorithm, and a Coagulation Index was established as follows: Coagulation Index = 0.0005 × PLT (109/L) - 0.0384 × MPV (fL) + 0.1148 × fibrinogen (g/L). A higher Coagulation Index score was significantly associated with higher pT stage and pN stage (p < 0.05). With this prognostic index, patients could be stratified into three risk groups. The 3-year overall survival (OS) rates of the low-, middle- and high-risk groups in the training cohort were 63.5%, 55.5% and 43.1%, respectively (log-rank p < 0.001). Similarly, in the validation set, the respective 3-year OS for each risk group was significantly different across the three risk groups. Multivariate analysis indicated that the Coagulation Index remained a significant factor for predicting OS, independently of pathological TNM stage.
Conclusions: The Coagulation Index is an independent predictor of survival for patients with ESCC.
© 2021. Society of Surgical Oncology.