Study of SEIR epidemic model and scenario analysis of COVID-19 pandemic

Subrata Paul; Animesh Mahata; Uttam Ghosh; Banamali Roy

doi:10.1016/j.egg.2021.100087

Study of SEIR epidemic model and scenario analysis of COVID-19 pandemic

Ecol Genet Genom. 2021 May:19:100087. doi: 10.1016/j.egg.2021.100087. Epub 2021 May 31.

Authors

Subrata Paul¹, Animesh Mahata², Uttam Ghosh³, Banamali Roy⁴

Affiliations

¹ Department of Mathematics, Arambagh Government Polytechnic, Arambagh, West Bengal, India.
² Mahadevnagar High School, Maheshtala, Kolkata- 700141, West Bengal, India.
³ Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Calcutta, Kolkata-700009, India.
⁴ Department of Mathematics, Bangabasi Evening College, Kolkata-700009, West Bengal, India.

Abstract

In recent times, the Coronavirus disease (caused by COVID-19) is evidently observed to be the extremely contagious one with high fatality rate worldwide. In March 2020, the disease was declared a "global pandemic" by the World Health Organization (WHO). So far, there is no known/effective vaccine or medicine. In this paper, we propose and analyze an SEIR compartment model. We also compare and analyze the case study of India and Brazil. The model system is discussed by using MATLAB (2018a) software and the numerical results are verified graphically.

Keywords: COVID-19; Case study: India and Brazil; Epidemic; SEIR model; Stability analysis.