When did coronavirus arrive in Europe?

Augusto Cerqua; Roberta Di Stefano

doi:10.1007/s10260-021-00568-4

When did coronavirus arrive in Europe?

Stat Methods Appt. 2022;31(1):181-195. doi: 10.1007/s10260-021-00568-4. Epub 2021 May 20.

Authors

Augusto Cerqua¹, Roberta Di Stefano²

Affiliations

¹ Department of Social Sciences and Economics, Sapienza University of Rome, P.le Aldo Moro, 5, 00185 Rome, Italy.
² Department of Statistical Sciences, Sapienza University of Rome, Viale Regina Elena 295, 00161 Rome, Italy.

Abstract

The first cluster of coronavirus cases in Europe was officially detected on 21st February 2020 in Northern Italy, even if recent evidence showed sporadic first cases in Europe since the end of 2019. In this study, we have tested the presence of coronavirus in Italy and, even more importantly, we have assessed whether the virus had already spread sooner than 21st February. We use a counterfactual approach and certified daily data on the number of deaths (deaths from any cause, not only related to coronavirus) at the municipality level. Our estimates confirm that coronavirus began spreading in Northern Italy in mid-January.

Keywords: Coronavirus; Counterfactual approach; Europe.