A critical evaluation of current definitions of necrotizing enterocolitis

Abstract

Background: Necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) is a devastating intestinal disease of premature infants, with significant mortality and long-term morbidity among survivors. Multiple NEC definitions exist, but no formal head-to-head evaluation has been performed. We hypothesized that contemporary definitions would perform better in evaluation metrics than Bell's and range features would be more frequently identified as important than yes/no features.

Methods: Two hundred and nineteen patients from the University of Iowa hospital with NEC, intestinal perforation, or NEC concern were identified from a 10-year retrospective cohort. NEC presence was confirmed by a blinded investigator. Evaluation metrics were calculated using statistics and six supervised machine learning classifiers for current NEC definitions. Feature importance evaluation was performed on each decision tree classifier.

Results: Newer definitions outperformed Bell's staging using both standard statistics and most machine learning classifiers. The decision tree classifier had the highest overall machine learning scores, which resulted in Non-Bell definitions having high sensitivity (0.826, INC) and specificity (0.969, ST), while Modified Bell (IIA+) had reasonable sensitivity (0.783), but poor specificity (0.531). Feature importance evaluation identified nine criteria as important for diagnosis.

Conclusions: This preliminary study suggests that Non-Bell NEC definitions may be better at diagnosing NEC and calls for further examination of definitions and important criteria.

Impact: This article is the first formal head-to-head evaluation of current available definitions of NEC. Non-Bell NEC definitions may be more effective in identifying NEC based on findings from traditional measures of diagnostic performance and machine learning techniques. Nine features were identified as important for diagnosis from the definitions evaluated within the decision tree when performing supervised classification machine learning. This article serves as a preliminary study to formally evaluate the definitions of NEC utilized and should be expounded upon with a larger and more diverse patient cohort.