Drought monitoring in arid and semi-arid region based on multi-satellite datasets in northwest, China

Abstract

Drought is a complex natural disaster affected by multiple climate factors and underlying surface. In recent years, drought monitoring indices of remote sensing have been widely applied to monitor drought in a certain region or global. However, some remote sensing drought monitoring indices do not consider the drought-causing factors enough to reflect the comprehensive drought situation of a region fully. In this paper, a new remote sensing drought monitoring index, called Remote Sensing Drought Evaluation Index (RSDEI), was constructed by combining Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), Temperature Condition Index (TCI), Precipitation Condition Index (PCI), and Soil Moisture Condition Index (SMCI) using the spatial principal component analysis (SPCA) method. The reasonableness of RSDEI was test and verified using Net Primary Productivity (NPP), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and unit area crop yield. The RSDEI was also applied to the drought condition monitoring of the northwest arid and semi-arid region from 2001 to 2019.The result demonstrated that the results showed that the RSDEI had a high correlation coefficient with SPEI-12 (R=0.85, p<0.01). It is concluded that the correlation coefficient between RSDEI and NPP is 0.74 at 95% confidence level, which indicates that RSDEI and NPP have a strong correlation. Then, the correlation between RSDEI and crop yield per unit area is 0.89. The results of RSDEI showed that the drought in northwest China started in May and lasted in September from 2001 to 2019. The lowest value of RSDEI appeared in May, which inflected the significant difference of drought level in different month in northwest China. The result of CV (coefficient of variation) showed that the drought variation in the study area had a stable low fluctuation condition as a whole, in the northwest and northeast of study area, which indicated that the changes of drought were different in the past 19 years. The Hurst exponent analysis showed that the area with the positive evolution of Hurst index (0.5<H<1) is 1,845,046.669 km²,which accounts for 75.9% of the total area, while the area with reverse evolution characteristics (H<0.5) accounts for 24.1% of the total area. The result obtained above reflected that the drought changes in most regions are better than that in the past 19 years. The trend gradually changes from drought to humid.

Keywords: Drought monitoring; Northwest China; Remote Sensing Drought Evaluation Index; Remote sensing datasets; SPCA.