The impact of relaxing interventions on human contact patterns and SARS-CoV-2 transmission in China

Sci Adv. 2021 May 7;7(19):eabe2584. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.abe2584. Print 2021 May.

Abstract

Nonpharmaceutical interventions to control SARS-CoV-2 spread have been implemented with different intensity, timing, and impact on transmission. As a result, post-lockdown COVID-19 dynamics are heterogeneous and difficult to interpret. We describe a set of contact surveys performed in four Chinese cities (Wuhan, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Changsha) during the pre-pandemic, lockdown and post-lockdown periods to quantify changes in contact patterns. In the post-lockdown period, the mean number of contacts increased by 5 to 17% as compared to the lockdown period. However, it remains three to seven times lower than its pre-pandemic level sufficient to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission. We find that the impact of school interventions depends nonlinearly on the intensity of other activities. When most community activities are halted, school closure leads to a 77% decrease in the reproduction number; in contrast, when social mixing outside of schools is at pre-pandemic level, school closure leads to a 5% reduction in transmission.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adolescent
  • Adult
  • Aged
  • COVID-19 / epidemiology*
  • COVID-19 / transmission*
  • COVID-19 / virology
  • Child
  • Child, Preschool
  • China / epidemiology
  • Cities / epidemiology
  • Contact Tracing / methods
  • Contact Tracing / statistics & numerical data*
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Infant
  • Infant, Newborn
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Pandemics / prevention & control*
  • Quarantine*
  • SARS-CoV-2*
  • Surveys and Questionnaires
  • Young Adult