Background: Susceptibility to future smoking among youth never smokers has not changed in the past 20 years, although experimental cigarette smoking has decreased. We assessed how smoking susceptibility and tobacco industry-related marketing influenced smoking initiation.
Methods: Four waves (2013-2018) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study data were analyzed among youth aged 12 to 17 years at wave 1 who completed wave 4. Susceptibility was assessed by 4 items (openness to curiosity, try soon, try in the next year, and if your best friend offered) and categorized into 4 levels (0 = definitely no to all; 1 = yes to 1; 2 = yes to 2; and 3 + 4 = yes to 3 or 4 susceptibility items). Multivariable logistic regression evaluated how susceptibility levels, electronic cigarette use, and tobacco-related media activity predicted future experimental (≥1 puff), current (past 30 days), or established (≥100 cigarettes) smoking.
Results: Among 8899 never smokers at wave 1, 16.4% became experimental smokers, 7.6% current smokers, and 1.8% established smokers at wave 4. Black and Latino/a youth were less likely to experiment. Youth who endorsed 3 or 4 susceptibility items at wave 1 were more likely to be experimental (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 6.0; confidence interval [CI] = 4.8-7.4), current (aOR = 4.2; CI = 3.2-5.4), or established (aOR = 4.4; CI = 2.4-7.9) smokers at wave 4. Exposure to tobacco marketing, using tobacco-related apps, seeing social media content posted about tobacco, and ever use of electronic cigarettes also predicted experimental smoking.
Conclusions: Smoking susceptibility and exposure to tobacco industry-related marketing were predictive of cigarette smoking. Clinicians should consider screening adolescents for smoking susceptibility and tobacco-related media exposure.
Copyright © 2021 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.