Using machine learning to develop a novel COVID-19 Vulnerability Index (C19VI)

Abstract

COVID-19 is now one of the most leading causes of death in the United States (US). Systemic health, social and economic disparities have put the minorities and economically poor communities at a higher risk than others. There is an immediate requirement to develop a reliable measure of county-level vulnerabilities that can capture the heterogeneity of vulnerable communities. This study reports a COVID-19 Vulnerability Index (C19VI) for identifying and mapping vulnerable counties. We proposed a Random Forest machine learning-based vulnerability model using CDC's sociodemographic and COVID-19-specific themes. An innovative 'COVID-19 Impact Assessment' algorithm was also developed for evaluating severity of the pandemic and to train the vulnerability model. Developed C19VI was statistically validated and compared with the CDC COVID-19 Community Vulnerability Index (CCVI). Finally, using C19VI and the census data, we explored racial inequalities and economic disparities in COVID-19 health outcomes. Our index indicates that 575 counties (45 million people) fall into the 'very high' vulnerability class, 765 counties (66 million people) in the 'high' vulnerability class, and 1435 counties (204 million people) in the 'moderate' or 'low' vulnerability class. Only 367 counties (20 million people) were found as 'very low' vulnerable areas. Furthermore, C19VI reveals that 524 counties with a racial minority population higher than 13% and 420 counties with poverty higher than 20% are in the 'very high' or 'high' vulnerability classes. The C19VI aims at helping public health officials and disaster management agencies to develop effective mitigation strategies especially for the disproportionately impacted communities.

Keywords: COVID-19; Disproportionate COVID-19; Machine learning; Racial minority; Vulnerability modeling.