Arbitrary-Order Finite-Time Corrections for the Kramers-Moyal Operator

Entropy (Basel). 2021 Apr 24;23(5):517. doi: 10.3390/e23050517.

Abstract

With the aim of improving the reconstruction of stochastic evolution equations from empirical time-series data, we derive a full representation of the generator of the Kramers-Moyal operator via a power-series expansion of the exponential operator. This expansion is necessary for deriving the different terms in a stochastic differential equation. With the full representation of this operator, we are able to separate finite-time corrections of the power-series expansion of arbitrary order into terms with and without derivatives of the Kramers-Moyal coefficients. We arrive at a closed-form solution expressed through conditional moments, which can be extracted directly from time-series data with a finite sampling intervals. We provide all finite-time correction terms for parametric and non-parametric estimation of the Kramers-Moyal coefficients for discontinuous processes which can be easily implemented-employing Bell polynomials-in time-series analyses of stochastic processes. With exemplary cases of insufficiently sampled diffusion and jump-diffusion processes, we demonstrate the advantages of our arbitrary-order finite-time corrections and their impact in distinguishing diffusion and jump-diffusion processes strictly from time-series data.

Keywords: Bell polynomials; Fokker–Planck equation; Kramers–Moyal coefficients; Kramers–Moyal equation; arbitrary-order approximations; non-parametric estimators; stochastic processes.