Based on biomedical index data: Risk prediction model for prostate cancer

Abstract

To explore the influencing factors of prostate cancer occurrence, set up risk prediction model, require reference for the preliminary diagnosis of clinical doctors, this model searched database through the data of prostate cancer patients and prostate hyperplasia patients National Clinical Medical Science Data Center.With the help of Stata SE 12.0 and SPSS 25.0 software, the biases between groups were balanced by propensity score matching. Based on the matched data, the relevant factors were further screened by stepwise logistic regression analysis, the key variable and artificial neural network model are established. The prediction accuracy of the model is evaluated by combining the probability of test set with the area under receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC).After 1:2 PSM, 339 pairs were matched successfully. There are 159 cases in testing groups and 407 cases in training groups. And the regression model was P = 1 / (1 + e (0.122 ∗ age + 0.083 ∗ Apo lipoprotein C3 + 0.371 ∗ total prostate specific antigen (tPSA) -0.227 ∗ Apo lipoprotein C2-6.093 ∗ free calcium (iCa) + 0.428 ∗ Apo lipoprotein E-1.246 ∗ triglyceride-1.919 ∗ HDL cholesterol + 0.083 ∗ creatine kinase isoenzyme [CKMB])). The logistic regression model performed very well (ROC, 0.963; 95% confidence interval, 0.951 to 0.978) and artificial neural network model (ROC, 0.983; 95% confidence interval, 0.964 to 0.997). High degree of Apo lipoprotein E (Apo E) (Odds Ratio, [OR], 1.535) in blood test is a risk factor and high triglyceride (TG) (OR, 0.288) is a protective factor.It takes the biochemical examination of the case as variables to establish a risk prediction model, which can initially reflect the risk of prostate cancer and bring some references for diagnosis and treatment.