Aim: The outbreak of the new coronavirus pandemic (SARS-CoV-2) was initiated in December 2019, and within a couple of months it became a global health emergency. Given the importance to assess the evolution and transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 and to forecast the next scenario of the pandemic, mainly in countries with limited healthcare systems, we estimated the reproductive number (R0) of SARS-CoV-2 in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), India, and a possible scenario for this pandemic in the region.
Subject and methods: We estimated the reproductive number (R0) of SARS-CoV-2 in its first outbreak stage in the northwestern region of Himalaya, India, and we also predicted new daily cases for the next 90 days using different R0, testing a plausible end of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak.
Results: Our results showed a considerable increase in the number of cases, but with a tendency to asymptote. Anantnag, Bandipora, Baramulla, Shopian, and Srinagar districts showed more than 100 cases and Kulgam and Kathua districts showed strong growth of the number of cases from the beginning of May, without a tendency to normalization. The estimated R0 for the J&K region was 1.041; but by decreasing the RO by 10, 25, and 50%, we observed a great decrease in the daily number of new cases, especially by decreasing by 50%.
Conclusion: In this study, we indicate positive effects of the preventive measures, such as lockdown and social distancing, taken in the J&K region, showing a stabilization of the growth curves of new cases of SARS-CoV-2, which tends to a strong decrease over time as the R0 decreases.
Keywords: 2019n-CoV; Coronavirus; Covid-19; Infectious disease; Pandemic; Transmissibility.
© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2021.