COVID-19 Global Humanitarian Response Plan: An optimal distribution model for high-priority countries

Abstract

Background: The 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has spread rapidly worldwide, and the outbreak of the disease was designated a global pandemic by the World Health Organization. Such outbreaks would certainly be catastrophic for some of the best-ranked health systems and would be more catastrophic in countries with more fragile health systems. Accordingly, the World Health Organization and other organizations have been appealing to donor countries to support a rapid response plan. The primary objectives of this response plan are to appeal for funds from donors and to distribute these funds to the most affected countries based on the requirements.

Methods: In this study, we developed a mathematical model to provide initial insights into the efficient and equitable distribution of urgent funds to high-priority countries. Three phases were proposed for the construction of this mathematical model. In the first phase, the final epidemic sizes in all the target countries were predicted by using three epidemiological models. In the second phase, the urgent requirements for each country were estimated in parallel with the estimates issued by the humanitarian response plan, based on the size of the epidemic and several other factors. In the third and final phase, a multi-objective optimization model was proposed. The first objective was to maximize the funds from donors to cover all the requirements. The second objective was to minimize the unmet demands by ensuring a fair distribution of the urgent funds based on the requirements of the target countries.

Results: Predictions of the basic reproduction numbers and the final epidemic sizes were calculated for all target countries. The urgent requirements were estimated, and the requirements issued by the humanitarian response plan for all target countries were also considered. Moreover, a proposed response plan for the distribution network was demonstrated. Donors must provide urgent funds exceeding US$ 2,608,084,209 to cover at least 40 % of each target country's requirements. Overall, results demonstrate the importance of an urgent and fair distribution of funds to the target countries to overcome the outbreak of COVID-19.

Conclusions: Rapid responses by donor countries to humanitarian appeals will facilitate the immediate and fair distribution of relief supplies to the poorest countries. This distribution may help to support health systems, restrain the spread of COVID-19, and prevent an unlimited catastrophe.

Keywords: COVID-19; Global Humanitarian Response Plan; High priority countries; Optimization modeling.